Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 2021 | 11555 | 52271 | 398 | 107 | 44 | 78 |
| May 18 2021 | 11559 | 52328 | 399 | 107 | 45 | 77 |
| May 19 2021 | 11563 | 52382 | 400 | 107 | 48 | 63 |
| May 20 2021 | 11566 | 52427 | 400 | 107 | 51 | 64 |
| May 21 2021 | 11569 | 52465 | 402 | 107 | 49 | 58 |
| May 22 2021 | 11569 | 52503 | 402 | 107 | 43 | 55 |
| May 23 2021 | 11576 | 52552 | 403 | 107 | 42 | 61 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 7.1% | 3 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.3 | 11.9% | 5 | 0.04% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 0.4 | 21.4% | 9 | 0.04% | 16 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.4 | 14.3% | 6 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.7 | 21.4% | 9 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.3 | 11.9% | 5 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 9.5% | 4 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 7 | 3.0 | 100% | 42 | 0.04% | 60 | 0.06% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 2021 | 7405 | 30727 | 269 | 94 | 39 | 80 |
| May 18 2021 | 7416 | 30770 | 269 | 94 | 46 | 77 |
| May 19 2021 | 7422 | 30786 | 271 | 94 | 52 | 71 |
| May 20 2021 | 7428 | 30808 | 275 | 94 | 57 | 69 |
| May 21 2021 | 7433 | 30822 | 276 | 94 | 58 | 67 |
| May 22 2021 | 7438 | 30849 | 276 | 94 | 52 | 68 |
| May 23 2021 | 7438 | 30870 | 276 | 94 | 48 | 68 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.2% | 2 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.6 | 31.2% | 15 | 0.18% | 19 | 0.23% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.6 | 10.4% | 5 | 0.07% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 10.4% | 5 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.1 | 16.7% | 8 | 0.1% | 10 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 14.6% | 7 | 0.07% | 10 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 6.2% | 3 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 6.2% | 3 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 0 | 4.7 | 100% | 48 | 0.07% | 68 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 2021 | 5832 | 20406 | 272 | 82 | 64 | 94 |
| May 18 2021 | 5837 | 20424 | 273 | 82 | 58 | 97 |
| May 19 2021 | 5841 | 20456 | 274 | 82 | 44 | 96 |
| May 20 2021 | 5845 | 20473 | 274 | 82 | 44 | 95 |
| May 21 2021 | 5848 | 20488 | 274 | 82 | 45 | 80 |
| May 22 2021 | 5849 | 20501 | 274 | 82 | 38 | 70 |
| May 23 2021 | 5852 | 20526 | 275 | 82 | 40 | 55 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.6 | 25% | 10 | 0.18% | 11 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 15% | 6 | 0.13% | 9 | 0.2% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.3 | 10% | 4 | 0.07% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.3 | 12.5% | 5 | 0.1% | 8 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 15% | 6 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 12.5% | 5 | 0.08% | 6 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 7.5% | 3 | 0.05% | 6 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 3 | 2.9 | 100% | 40 | 0.09% | 55 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 2021 | 12816 | 58919 | 420 | 87 | 77 | 98 |
| May 18 2021 | 12829 | 58995 | 423 | 87 | 78 | 80 |
| May 19 2021 | 12825 | 59064 | 424 | 87 | 73 | 79 |
| May 20 2021 | 12839 | 59103 | 426 | 87 | 87 | 93 |
| May 21 2021 | 12844 | 59149 | 426 | 87 | 64 | 93 |
| May 22 2021 | 12805 | 59229 | 427 | 87 | 51 | 93 |
| May 23 2021 | 12808 | 59276 | 427 | 87 | 43 | 91 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | -1.9 | -92.9% | -13 | -0.11% | -8 | -0.07% |
| 10-19 | 1 | -0.1 | 64.3% | 9 | 0.05% | 23 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 1 | -0.4 | -14.3% | -2 | -0.01% | 5 | 0.02% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.9 | 71.4% | 10 | 0.07% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 0 | -0.4 | -14.3% | -2 | -0.01% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 28.6% | 4 | 0.03% | 10 | 0.07% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 35.7% | 5 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 21.4% | 3 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 3 | -1.3 | 100% | 14 | 0.01% | 62 | 0.05% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 2021 | 44771 | 349840 | 1465 | 306 | 240 | 433 |
| May 18 2021 | 44795 | 350147 | 1469 | 307 | 236 | 436 |
| May 19 2021 | 44820 | 350582 | 1472 | 307 | 224 | 416 |
| May 20 2021 | 44857 | 351011 | 1475 | 307 | 245 | 377 |
| May 21 2021 | 44892 | 351315 | 1479 | 308 | 270 | 361 |
| May 22 2021 | 44916 | 351772 | 1486 | 308 | 268 | 357 |
| May 23 2021 | 44937 | 352132 | 1489 | 308 | 270 | 341 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.1 | 11.9% | 32 | 0.05% | 37 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 4.6 | 20% | 54 | 0.08% | 60 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 6.7 | 25.6% | 69 | 0.07% | 84 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.3 | 17% | 46 | 0.06% | 58 | 0.08% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.3 | 6.7% | 18 | 0.03% | 34 | 0.05% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.9 | 11.1% | 30 | 0.05% | 39 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.6 | 4.8% | 13 | 0.02% | 17 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 2 | 0.9 | 3% | 8 | 0.02% | 12 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 21 | 24.3 | 100% | 270 | 0.05% | 341 | 0.06% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17 2021 | 606274 | 2907785 | 30250 | 6958 | 4009 | 6698 |
| May 18 2021 | 606755 | 2911300 | 30345 | 6971 | 3965 | 6458 |
| May 19 2021 | 607138 | 2914744 | 30416 | 6976 | 4040 | 6202 |
| May 20 2021 | 607586 | 2918075 | 30479 | 6978 | 4283 | 5983 |
| May 21 2021 | 607992 | 2921240 | 30555 | 6986 | 4172 | 5727 |
| May 22 2021 | 608285 | 2924838 | 30620 | 6989 | 3907 | 5495 |
| May 23 2021 | 608432 | 2927637 | 30643 | 6989 | 3569 | 5334 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 24.4 | 8.1% | 290 | 0.05% | 435 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 26 | 57.4 | 18.1% | 645 | 0.09% | 944 | 0.12% |
| 20-29 | 39 | 55.3 | 17.6% | 627 | 0.08% | 880 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 24 | 49.0 | 15.6% | 555 | 0.07% | 864 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 43.7 | 13% | 463 | 0.07% | 720 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 46.1 | 13.5% | 481 | 0.06% | 726 | 0.09% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 28.4 | 8.3% | 298 | 0.04% | 457 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 8 | 20.4 | 5.9% | 210 | 0.03% | 308 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 147 | 324.9 | 100% | 3569 | 0.06% | 5334 | 0.09% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 3 | 3.7 | 6.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 4.7 | 5 | 17% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.2 | 2.9 | 9.4 | 12.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | 13.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 6.1 | -2.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 24.3 | 34.9 | 6.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2 | 12.5 | 11.6 | 324.9 | 491.7 | 9.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.67 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-06-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6303"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges