Daily

Column

Important dates: (blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
May 17 2021 11555 52271 398 107 44 78
May 18 2021 11559 52328 399 107 45 77
May 19 2021 11563 52382 400 107 48 63
May 20 2021 11566 52427 400 107 51 64
May 21 2021 11569 52465 402 107 49 58
May 22 2021 11569 52503 402 107 43 55
May 23 2021 11576 52552 403 107 42 61
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.3 7.1% 3 0.03% 3 0.03%
10-19 1 0.3 11.9% 5 0.04% 8 0.06%
20-29 2 0.4 21.4% 9 0.04% 16 0.08%
30-39 1 0.4 14.3% 6 0.04% 7 0.05%
40-49 1 0.7 21.4% 9 0.09% 11 0.11%
50-59 0 0.3 11.9% 5 0.04% 7 0.06%
60-69 0 0.1 2.4% 1 0.01% 3 0.03%
70+ 1 0.4 9.5% 4 0.04% 5 0.05%
All ages 7 3.0 100% 42 0.04% 60 0.06%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
May 17 2021 7405 30727 269 94 39 80
May 18 2021 7416 30770 269 94 46 77
May 19 2021 7422 30786 271 94 52 71
May 20 2021 7428 30808 275 94 57 69
May 21 2021 7433 30822 276 94 58 67
May 22 2021 7438 30849 276 94 52 68
May 23 2021 7438 30870 276 94 48 68
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.0 4.2% 2 0.03% 4 0.05%
10-19 0 1.6 31.2% 15 0.18% 19 0.23%
20-29 0 0.6 10.4% 5 0.07% 6 0.08%
30-39 0 0.4 10.4% 5 0.06% 8 0.1%
40-49 0 1.1 16.7% 8 0.1% 10 0.13%
50-59 0 0.6 14.6% 7 0.07% 10 0.1%
60-69 0 0.1 6.2% 3 0.04% 6 0.07%
70+ 0 0.3 6.2% 3 0.04% 5 0.07%
All ages 0 4.7 100% 48 0.07% 68 0.11%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
May 17 2021 5832 20406 272 82 64 94
May 18 2021 5837 20424 273 82 58 97
May 19 2021 5841 20456 274 82 44 96
May 20 2021 5845 20473 274 82 44 95
May 21 2021 5848 20488 274 82 45 80
May 22 2021 5849 20501 274 82 38 70
May 23 2021 5852 20526 275 82 40 55
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 2.5% 1 0.02% 2 0.04%
10-19 1 0.6 25% 10 0.18% 11 0.2%
20-29 0 0.1 15% 6 0.13% 9 0.2%
30-39 1 0.3 10% 4 0.07% 4 0.07%
40-49 0 0.3 12.5% 5 0.1% 8 0.16%
50-59 0 0.6 15% 6 0.09% 9 0.13%
60-69 0 0.4 12.5% 5 0.08% 6 0.09%
70+ 1 0.4 7.5% 3 0.05% 6 0.09%
All ages 3 2.9 100% 40 0.09% 55 0.12%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
May 17 2021 12816 58919 420 87 77 98
May 18 2021 12829 58995 423 87 78 80
May 19 2021 12825 59064 424 87 73 79
May 20 2021 12839 59103 426 87 87 93
May 21 2021 12844 59149 426 87 64 93
May 22 2021 12805 59229 427 87 51 93
May 23 2021 12808 59276 427 87 43 91
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 -1.9 -92.9% -13 -0.11% -8 -0.07%
10-19 1 -0.1 64.3% 9 0.05% 23 0.14%
20-29 1 -0.4 -14.3% -2 -0.01% 5 0.02%
30-39 1 0.9 71.4% 10 0.07% 16 0.12%
40-49 0 -0.4 -14.3% -2 -0.01% 4 0.03%
50-59 0 0.4 28.6% 4 0.03% 10 0.07%
60-69 0 0.1 35.7% 5 0.04% 7 0.05%
70+ 0 0.1 21.4% 3 0.02% 5 0.04%
All ages 3 -1.3 100% 14 0.01% 62 0.05%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
May 17 2021 44771 349840 1465 306 240 433
May 18 2021 44795 350147 1469 307 236 436
May 19 2021 44820 350582 1472 307 224 416
May 20 2021 44857 351011 1475 307 245 377
May 21 2021 44892 351315 1479 308 270 361
May 22 2021 44916 351772 1486 308 268 357
May 23 2021 44937 352132 1489 308 270 341
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 3.1 11.9% 32 0.05% 37 0.06%
10-19 2 4.6 20% 54 0.08% 60 0.08%
20-29 9 6.7 25.6% 69 0.07% 84 0.08%
30-39 4 3.3 17% 46 0.06% 58 0.08%
40-49 0 1.3 6.7% 18 0.03% 34 0.05%
50-59 1 2.9 11.1% 30 0.05% 39 0.06%
60-69 0 1.6 4.8% 13 0.02% 17 0.03%
70+ 2 0.9 3% 8 0.02% 12 0.02%
All ages 21 24.3 100% 270 0.05% 341 0.06%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
May 17 2021 606274 2907785 30250 6958 4009 6698
May 18 2021 606755 2911300 30345 6971 3965 6458
May 19 2021 607138 2914744 30416 6976 4040 6202
May 20 2021 607586 2918075 30479 6978 4283 5983
May 21 2021 607992 2921240 30555 6986 4172 5727
May 22 2021 608285 2924838 30620 6989 3907 5495
May 23 2021 608432 2927637 30643 6989 3569 5334
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 8 24.4 8.1% 290 0.05% 435 0.07%
10-19 26 57.4 18.1% 645 0.09% 944 0.12%
20-29 39 55.3 17.6% 627 0.08% 880 0.12%
30-39 24 49.0 15.6% 555 0.07% 864 0.11%
40-49 22 43.7 13% 463 0.07% 720 0.1%
50-59 12 46.1 13.5% 481 0.06% 726 0.09%
60-69 8 28.4 8.3% 298 0.04% 457 0.06%
70+ 8 20.4 5.9% 210 0.03% 308 0.05%
All ages 147 324.9 100% 3569 0.06% 5334 0.09%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
5.7 5.9 7.6 3 3.7 6.4%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
10.5 4.7 5 17%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
12.2 2.9 9.4 12.7%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
5.2 13.9 2.3 2.7 6.1 -2.3%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
6.2 8.4 8.1 24.3 34.9 6.4%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
9.2 12.5 11.6 324.9 491.7 9.3%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.67 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-06-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6303"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red